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Prediction for CME (2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-21T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29690/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption near Active Region 3614 (~N30E30) starting around 2024-03-21T18:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible at this time in SDO AIA 171 and 193 as well, with post eruptive dimming visible around 19:00Z in SDO AIA 193. This CME was likely swept into the front of 2024-03-23T01:25Z and 2024-03-23T01:48Z O-type CMEs.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-25T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-22T16:25:27Z
## Message ID: 20240322-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-21T18:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~777 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 30 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -24/37 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter (glancing blow).  The flank of the CME may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-23T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-25T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 1-2 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-03-21T18:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240321_225900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240321_225900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240321_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240321_225900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 73.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-03-22T16:25Z
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